Archive for April 21st, 2011
Study Links Ozone Hole to Climate Change
Text of a Press Release copied below. This does seem important to me – even if it is not exactly about transport and planning in Greater Vancouver. I have left comments and pingbacks open so if people want to opine on this sort of thing getting posted here they can. If you are on the Landwatch list serve you will already have seen it, since I forwarded it there as well. Kudos to the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, BC.
NEW COLUMBIA ENGINEERING STUDY LINKS OZONE HOLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ALL THE WAY TO THE EQUATOR, AFFECTING TROPICAL CIRCULATION AND RAINFALL
First Time that Ozone Depletion Is Shown to Impact the Entire Circulation of the Southern Hemisphere
New York — April 21, 2011 — In a study to be published in the April 21st issue of Science magazine, researchers at Columbia University’s School of Engineering and Applied Science report their findings that the ozone hole, which is located over the South Pole, has affected the entire circulation of the Southern Hemisphere all the way to the equator. While previous work has shown that the ozone hole is changing the atmospheric flow in the high latitudes, the Columbia Engineering paper, “Impact of Polar Ozone Depletion on Subtropical Precipitation,” demonstrates that the ozone hole is able to influence the tropical circulation and increase rainfall at low latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This is the first time that ozone depletion, an upper atmospheric phenomenon confined to the polar regions, has been linked to climate change from the Pole to the equator.“The ozone hole is not even mentioned in the summary for policymakers issued with the last IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report,” noted Lorenzo M. Polvani, Professor of Applied Mathematics and of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Senior Research Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and co-author of the paper. “We show in this study that it has large and far-reaching impacts. The ozone hole is a big player in the climate system!”
“It’s really amazing that the ozone hole, located so high up in the atmosphere over Antarctica, can have an impact all the way to the tropics and affect rainfall there — it’s just like a domino effect,” said Sarah Kang, Postdoctoral Research Scientist in Columbia Engineering’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and lead author of the paper.
The ozone hole is now widely believed to have been the dominant agent of atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere in the last half century. This means, according to Polvani and Kang, that international agreements about mitigating climate change cannot be confined to dealing with carbon alone— ozone needs to be considered, too. “This could be a real game-changer,” Polvani added.
Located in the Earth’s stratosphere, just above the troposphere (which begins on Earth’s surface), the ozone layer absorbs most of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays. Over the last half-century, widespread use of manmade compounds, especially household and commercial aerosols containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), has significantly and rapidly broken down the ozone layer, to a point where a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer was discovered in the mid 1980s. Thanks to the 1989 Montreal Protocol, now signed by 196 countries, global CFC production has been phased out. As a result, scientists have observed over the past decade that ozone depletion has largely halted and they now expect it to fully reverse, and the ozone hole to close by midcentury.
But, as Polvani has said, “While the ozone hole has been considered as a solved problem, we’re now finding it has caused a great deal of the climate change that’s been observed.” So, even though CFCs are no longer being added to the atmosphere, and the ozone layer will recover in the coming decades, the closing of the ozone hole will have a considerable impact on climate. This shows that through international treaties such as the Montreal Protocol, which has been called the single most successful international agreement to date, human beings are able to make changes to the climate system.
Together with colleagues at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, BC, Kang and Polvani used two different state-of-the-art climate models to show the ozone hole effect. They first calculated the atmospheric changes in the models produced by creating an ozone hole. They then compared these changes with the ones that have been observed in the last few decades: the close agreement between the models and the observations shows that ozone has likely been responsible for the observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
This important new finding was made possible by the international collaboration of the Columbia University scientists with Canadian colleagues. Model results pertaining to rainfall are notoriously difficult to calculate with climate models, and a single model is usually not sufficient to establish credible results. By joining hands and comparing results from two independent models, the scientists obtained solid results.
Kang and Polvani plan next to study extreme precipitation events, which are associated with major floods, mudslides, etc. “We really want to know,” said Kang, “if and how the closing of the ozone hole will affect these.”
This study was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation.
Vancouver Island railway running out of steam
The Globe and Mail sets out the depressing recent history of the Esquimault and Nanaimo Railway. I have, of course, covered this before – with the same photo!
Victoria Station October 1994 - my photo
I came to Vancouver Island in 1994, when I worked for the BC government. The railway was, of course, an issue then. That really has not changed very much except, like the railway, the position has steadily deteriorated. In fact one of the last things I did before I left was buy myself a round trip ticket for the ride from Victoria up to Courtney and the back again. I was pretty sure I would not have the opportunity again – and at present it cannot be done. The once a day train has stopped running – and in fact has not been allowed into Victoria for a while.
Nanaimo Station February 1997 - my photo
While I lived in Victoria there was a lot of interest in running a train into Victoria in the morning and out again in the evening – just like West Coast Express. That, it was said, would give people an alternative to the “Colwood Crawl”. Unfortunately the government of the day was committed to the Island Highway – an idea born of the previous SoCred government. Nanaimo being a centre of NDP support – and of course the bingo scandal – they wanted the highway much more than any upgrade to the E&N. On that last ride in 1997 I got see the raw wound of the new highway carved across the scenery. At one time the E&N was one of the more scenic railway rides. It seemed to me at the time that the Island Highway project had damaged much of that.
Courtenay Station February 1997 - my photo
Once you got to Courtenay there was really nothing much to see – and anyway the single car train simply reversed direction and went back the way it came. There was no catering on the train. A coffee truck came out to meet it at Nanaimo – and there was time to get a cup of something very like coffee and some thing else which was almost edible.
Victoria Station - and the Johnson Street Bridge 1994 - my photo
But there was never any consensus – especially among supporters of doing something. The commuter train was not supported by those who wanted light rail for Victoria. Others thought that it should be a tourist attraction. Something like that has been running at the extreme end of the old E&N in Port Alberni. It uses an old steam logging loco and converted cabooses and is run by volunteers
Alberni Pacific at Port Alberni BC June 2010 - my photo
This is also an idea that was adopted on St Kitts with their narrow gauge round the Island line left redundant by the abandonment of sugar growing.
St Kitts Scenic Railway, December 2010 - my photo
They of course now have tourism as their only industry – so their minds were much more concentrated. But enthusiasts in many countries have started successful railway preservation projects – perhaps none more so than in Great Britain where Dr Beeching provided them with plenty of opportunities, and there was a considerable body of enthusiasts and experienced, retired railwaymen. Some of these operations quickly expanded beyond the gricer and Thomas the tank engine markets into real transport service – and are now known as “community railways”, with the opportunity for government support for socially necessary services.
Victoria is, of course, a cruise ship port of call. You cannot expect the cruise ship companies to come up with excursions themselves but everywhere that cruise ships operate there are small tour operators keen to tap the deep pockets of cruise ship passengers. Alaska, for instance – and the Yukon – both offer train rides to them. BC has one of the best tourist railway operators since VIA gave up on the finest scenic passenger ride – the Kicking Horse pass to Banff – which has allowed Rocky Mountaineer to become very successful indeed and expand with services to Whistler and beyond.
Rocky Mountaineer June 2010 - my photo
If we had governments who could get the heads out of highways for a moment, they would see that the lower end of the E&N could become very useful both for moving commuters and tourists. Indeed this market segmentation strategy is essential. Virgin brought that expertise to British railways from its airline business and has doubled passenger traffic on its route (the West Coast Main Line). Running trains for people is a different kind of business to running trains for freight but unfortunately North American railways are dominated by those who understand freight alone.
West Coast Express - June 2005 - my photo
It is not beyond the wit of man to come up with a structure that would allow for different types of train service that will attract commuters and tourists – just not at the same time. And freight trains could be fitted in between them, even without huge investments in signalling. As Bombardier was saying, the time is right for trains: if only because they are far more fuel efficient per passenger kilometre than most other modes.
UPDATE BC Transit announced today (April 26) that “Light Rail Transit (LRT) has been identified as the preferred technology that will meet the goals and objectives of the Victoria Regional Rapid Transit Project.”
In 2010, the rapid transit alignment was approved and endorsed by all directly‐affected municipalities (Victoria, Saanich, View Royal, Colwood and Langford), the Victoria Regional Transit Commission and approved by the Board of Directors. The alignment follows Douglas Street between downtown Victoria and Uptown in Saanich, then runs parallel to the Trans‐Canada Highway and the Galloping Goose Trail to 6 Mile/Colwood Interchange, along the Island Highway to Colwood City Centre, then into Station Avenue in Langford via Goldstream Avenue.
In May 2011, the business case with the recommended technology will be submitted to the Victoria Regional Transit Commission for endorsement and then to the BC Transit Board of Directors for approval in May. If approved, the business case will be submitted to the Province of BC in June. The timeline for the project will be finalized once BC Transit receives approval and funding for the project.
The cost of the preferred technology along the entire alignment is estimated at $950 million.
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